Emerging Trend

If there’s one thing you can count on from the annual
Intel Developer Forum, it’s that you won’t be
bombarded with the kind of pipe dreams and vaporware
you get at most of the events that cover “emerging
technologies.” In the 10 years since IDF began in
1997, the conference has been a regular harbinger of
what’s to come in computing, from the emergence of
Wi-Fi to hyper-threading and dual-core processors.

The leading trends at the Intel Developer Forum
regularly become mainstream within two years because
Intel has usually been very good at picking winners
and putting its resources behind the right
technologies.

At IDF 2007 on September 18-20 in San Francisco, I
spotted four important trends that IT professionals
should keep an eye on over the next two years.
4. Cleaner and greener technology

A ton of momentum and collective will is building
around environmentally conscious “green” technologies,
from energy-sipping CPU chips to cleaner power to
technology recycling programs. Large companies like
Hewlett-Packard are trying to educate users and make
it easier to recycle equipment. Startups like fuel
cell maker Medis are producing low-cost power packs to
give extra hours of battery life to portable devices,
and doing it in a way that does not damage the
environment even if the fuel cells — which are
recyclable — are thrown in landfills.

So the PCs and devices are consuming less power,
battery power is getting longer and more versatile,
and a lot of tech manufacturers are working toward
building equipment with less-toxic, more recyclable
materials.
3. The wire-free desk (and living room)

Just as we’ve heard about the “paperless office” for
years but have only slowly made progress toward it,
the idea of a wire-free desk enabled by near field
communications (NFC) and personal area network (PAN)
technologies has been swirling around for years but
with only a few devices, such as wireless
keyboard/mouse and Bluetooth headsets, going
mainstream. With the advent of Certified Wireless USB
and Bluetooth 2.1, over the next 12-24 months a lot
more devices are going to cut the cords, including LCD
displays, laptop docking stations, printers, digital
cameras, and much more.

These short-range wireless technologies will be
assisted by Universal Plug ‘n Play (UPnP) to make the
devices much easier to recognize and configure than
the current Bluetooth devices, which can be a major
headache for the average user.
2. The incredible shrinking PC

David Perlmutter, senior vice president and general
manager of Intel’s Mobility Group, predicted that by
2009, laptops will pass desktops in revenue. Not
surprisingly, some of the hottest devices at IDF were
small form factor desktops, ultra-mobile notebooks,
and phones and pocket devices that are as powerful as
the PCs that people were buying five years ago. It’s
ironic that PCs and notebooks are shrinking as desktop
displays get larger, but that’s another story.

There’s a new generation of powerful small form factor
devices aimed at business professionals on the run.
Nearly all of the big PC makers have ultra-portable
laptops powered by Intel’s dual core Centrino chips,
which are as fast or faster than the pre-dual core
CPUs that ran the previous generation of desktops.

However, there’s also a new variety of small, low-cost
laptop PCs aimed at emerging markets. The One Laptop
per Child machine is the most well-known, but there’s
also the ASUS Eee PC and Intel’s Classmate PC. I tried
out the Eee PC and Classmate PC at IDF and they are
both quite useful, even if they are underpowered
compared to today’s business laptops.
All three of these will cost around $200 or less. The
Eee PC, which runs Linux, could even be appealing to
some business users and IT professionals as a
functional machine for doing a few simple tasks in a
remote or highly mobile environment. The arrival of
these machines could help drive down the cost of
low-end laptops in general. Plus, there could
conceivably be high-end smartphones that are more
powerful and versatile than some of these low-end
laptops. One thing is clear: The days of the big,
ultra-powerful tower are definitely over, unless you
are a gamer or a graphics professional.
1. Broadband everywhere

WiMAX is another technology that has been promised for
years, but with little visible progress and very few
real world examples to show for all of the hype.
However, as developments over the next 12 months will
show, there has been a lot going on behind the scenes
to make WiMAX the next great broadband technology, at
the very least — and potentially the next great leap
in computing, if it can truly spread broadband
everywhere and connect new types of devices and
technologies that haven’t even been conceived of yet.

In talking about WiMAX at IDF, Intel’s Otellini said,
“We are on the cusp of a new global network.”

Sprint’s Xohm WiMAX service will officially launch in
Chicago, Baltimore, and Washington D.C. before the end
of 2007, and will then spread to a variety of other
U.S. metropolitan areas in 2008. Clearwire, which has
partnered with Sprint for WiMAX roaming, will launch
its WiMAX service in the U.S. in 2008, most likely in
many of the smaller metro markets. There’s also a
entire ecosystem of vendors that are planning WiMAX
launches in Asia, Europe, and South America over the
next 12-24 months. Plus, Intel is going to start
embedding dual-mode WiMAX/Wi-Fi cards in Centrino
laptops in 2008.

However, while WiMAX starts spreading over the next
few months, 3G HSPA technology — which already has a
strong foundation in place in the cellular networks
across the globe — is attempting to beat WiMAX to the
punch with roaming wireless cards and fixed wireless
modems that can bring broadband to rural areas and
other places with little or no broadband options.

Whether WiMAX or 3G cellular ultimately wins, or they
simply coexist, the future of broadband covering the
far-flung corners of the earth and connecting devices
of all sizes looks like a possibility that is finally
coming to life.