The rebel invasion of Chad

EARLY this month, serious fighting broke out in N'Djamena, the capital of Chad, when rebels sought to overthrow the government of President Idriss Deby. The current round of fighting is the second in as many years and since neither the government nor the rebel forces gained the upper hand, violence is most likely to resume at the earliest opportunity. The political and social problems that have stymied the country's development and rendered it highly unstable in the last 40 years cannot be resolved on the battlefield, but only through constitutionalism, equity and the rule of law.

A landlocked country that is bounded on the north by Libya, on the east by Sudan, on the south by the Central African Republic and on the west by Cameroun, Nigeria and Niger, Chad has not known much peace since it gained independence from France in 1960. The country is among the poorest in the world, with its 10 million citizens scraping a living on subsistent agriculture. Like in most post-colonial states in Africa, the Chadian ruling elite has struggled to gain access to the national patrimony by exploiting the country's ethnic, religious and geopolitical configuration.

The first president, Francois Tombalbaye, a southerner, was an authoritarian ruler who spent his early years in power seeking to isolate and eliminate his rivals, until he banned all opposition parties in 1962. His policies engendered serious dissatisfaction, especially among Moslems in the northern part of the country, leading to uprisings in the south and the east, a full-scale rebellion in the north in 1965, border conflicts with Libya, and coup attempts in 1971 and 1972. He was assassinated in a military coup in 1975.

Under Tombalbaye's successor, General F?lix Malloum, the war in the north was extended to the south. Malloum was also overthrown in 1979 and was replaced by a northerner, Goukouni Oueddei. But that did not end the civil strife. Instead, the former defence minister, Hiss?ne Habr?, launched an offensive against the government with the backing of Sudan and Egypt. Libya also intervened to support Oueddei, transforming Chad into the playground for the territorial and diplomatic ambitions of it neighbours. When Libya eventually withdrew at Oueddei's request in 1981, Habr? renewed his offensive and his rebel forces captured N'Djamena in June 1982.

Oueddei then formed a rival government in the north and in the ensuing strife was supported by Libya while the erstwhile colonial power, France, sent troops and supplies to keep Habr? in power. Libyan forces were driven out of the country in late 1988, but an insurgent group, the Patriotic Salvation Movement, backed by Libya and Sudan, ousted Habr?. The rebel leader was General Idriss Deby, the current president who is also at the receiving end of a more ferocious and persistent rebellion.

Deby has known little peace since he took over the presidency in December 1990. In January 1992, his government claimed to have crushed a rebellion by forces loyal to Habr?. In August 1993, his private army massacred 82 civilians during a civil unrest. The following year brought some respite when his government signed a cease-fire accord with the rebel group Comit? de Sursaut National pour la Paix et la D?mocratie (CSNPD) under which the rebels agreed to withdraw their forces from southern Chad while the government agreed to induct some of the rebels into the national army.

In the midst of this political turmoil, Deby introduced a new democratic constitution and was popularly elected president in June 1996. He was re-elected in May 2001. Like other African potentates, Deby caught the bug of third term and amended the constitution to make himself eligible for re-election. He also began positioning his son Brahim as his likely successor.

In the fractious turbulence of Chad's ethno-religious politics, these measures were unlikely to be ignored by the opposition, certainly, not when the prospect of huge oil revenues for the party in power has been added to the equation. Opposition emanated from various ethnic groups, including some from Deby's own minority Zagawa ethnic group, who feared marginalisation for their own kith and kin.

The biggest of the rebel groups is the United Force for Democracy and Development (UFDD) led by a former diplomat, Mahamat Nouri, who defected from the government 16 months ago. Deby's own uncle, Timan Erdimi, who was once in charge of the country's cotton industry, leads another group, the Rally of the Forces for Change, RFC. This gives the conflict the coloration of a 'family affair' although its political ramification is truly national in scope.

Deby's rebellion against the government of President Hiss?ne Habr? was launched from bases in the Darfur region of Sudan, on the eastern borders of Chad. Others could utilise this strategic advantage as well. The rebels also launched their invasion from Darfur, which is itself the arena of bitter, some will say, genocidal conflict. The interaction of the conflicts in Darfur and Chad has serious implications for regional stability and makes it even more difficult to find a peaceful solution either in Chad or Sudan.

Presidential elections are due in May 2008 and with the prevailing belief that these will not be free and fair, the rebel groups decided to pre-empt the outcome by removing Deby from power. With the failure of the rebel invasion, it is now imperative for third party intervention to resolve the underlying causes of the conflict in Chad. The regional hegemon, Nigeria, and the African Union should intensify effort to get the parties to seek power through constitutional means. Any solution will have to take account of the opposition to the self-serving constitutional amendments initiated by Deby. It is also imperative that Deby's son contests on his own terms. Chad is not a monarchy, and succession to the presidency should not be treated as such. The rebel groups should be encouraged to transit to political associations and should be allowed to participate in an election that will meet international standards. Therein lies the path to resolving the crisis in Chad.