Mugabe, elections and the future of Zimbabwe

WITH the call by the leader of the main opposition party, Morgan Tsvangirai on the people of Zimbabwe to stage a mass protest against the non release of the results of the recent general elections, it is obvious that the battle ground for Zimbabawe's nationhood has shifted from between ZANU-PF party and the erstwhile white minority rule under Ian Smith to Mugabe vs the free people of Zimbabawe. This is very unfortunate and a minus for Africa, a continent devastated by decades of inglorious leadership.

Following the deadlock over the elections, which the opposition claims it won but which Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF is clinching with tight fist, the rival parties have declared their intention to fight the vote recount that was ordered by Mugabe. The stage is gradually being set for possible civil unrest unless Mugabe retracts his steps and threads the path of honour by stepping down and giving the people the chance to redefine their destiny.

The political and economic crises in Zimbabwe have created one of the worst enclaves of political hardship and human mass suffering in the world. Life has become brutish as millions of people hardly find food to eat. It is a catastrophe that can only be compared to a war situation even though there is no shooting in Zimbabwe. The economy has been crippled. Basic food supplies are lacking. Zimbabwe has earned the unenviable record of having the highest inflation rate of 100,000 per cent in the world! The currency has become more of worthless bundle of paper where a loaf of bread costs millions of Zimbabwe dollars. Millions of Zimbabweans have fled the country. The situation is a historic antithesis.

Amidst the worsening situation, and in an attempt to forestall the break down of law and order, the police at the weekend banned all political rallies in the country. Tension is rising as hunger, poverty and deprivation bite hard on the population. There is no doubt that Zimbabwe is in deep crisis and is facing its worst turmoil since independence in 1980.

Denying that fact is preposterous, as President Thabo Mbeki seems to suggest. What is a crisis? In this context, we are talking of a situation in a country where the future is uncertain and life is difficult and painful. In such a situation, what is required is urgent action to avoid complete disaster or anarchy. Zimbabwe is facing such a precarious situation. This is the time that those who love that country must rally round to save its people.

Zimbabwe drew nearer to the brink in the past two weeks following a general election that is yet to produce any official winner. The election was contested between three political parties and their flag bearers, namely Robert Mugabe of the ruling ZANU-PF party, Morgan Tsvangira of the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and Mr. Simba Makoni, Mugabe's former finance minister, who split from the MDC to run as an independent candidate. The issue of the economy and political change dominated the campaign debates. Without doubt, most Zimbabweans want a change from the current abhorrent state of affairs and they demonstrated this through their votes. Zimbabweans are wearied by the Mugabe regime, which clearly has nothing new to offer.

The election results already released showed that the ruling ZANU-PF party has lost grip of the political machinery. The party secured 97 seats while the opposition MDC won 99. The minority breakaway MDC won 10 seats. Altogether, the opposition won 109 seats against Mugabe's 97.

The parliamentary results gave insight into what the presidential poll is like. Analysts believe that Mugabe definitely lost in the elections. This naturally expected outcome is certainly the reason why the presidential result is being withheld. There is no way Mr. Mugabe would have withheld the result for a second if he had won the election.

Amidst the deadlock, the opposition party has declared that it won 50.3 per cent of the votes. The Zimbabwe electoral law requires a benchmark 50 per cent win of the total votes cast for a candidate to be declared president. As the opposition is insisting that Mr. Tsvangira be declared president, it has also gone to court to compel the electoral body to release the results. On the other hand, Mr. Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party have ordered a recount of the votes accusing the electoral officials of deliberately undercounting votes in favour of the opposition. Given the stalemate, a runoff election is being expected to resolve the matter. Mugabe is banking on the runoff to regain his lost ground.

But why were the parliamentary election result released and the crucial presidential result withheld? Was it not the same method used in counting both the parliamentary and presidential votes? Both the vote recounting and the anticipated run off election are ploys by Mugabe to perpetuate himself in power against the desire and wishes of his people.

Once again, we are confronted with a situation of tyrannical leadership where one man drags the entire country to ruins in the guise of fighting perceived imperialist forces. The former strongman of Uganda, Idi Amin Dada pursued the same counter productive agenda that ruined his country and pauperized its people. No one can fight a force that is greater than him. Even with good intentions, it is clear that Mugabe cannot fight the forces that are greater than him. The consequences of such a misadventure are obvious on the country. Zimbabwe and its people have been ravaged. The people have been turned into refugees and despised by its neighbours.

Mugabe played a crucial role in the fight for Zimbabwe's independence. But history will be harsh on him for contributing to the destruction of Zimbabwe. Mr. Mugabe clearly fits as a nation builder considering his antecedents as a freedom fighter. But unless he steps down now after being in power for twenty-eight years and is weak and advanced in age at 84 years, he would also be called the destroyer of modern Zimbabwe. That would be uncomplimentary for a man who doggedly led a liberation movement against white minority rule in his country.

Zimbabwe's current crisis has its roots in the promises Mugabe made during the liberation movement on land rights. The issue of land rights reemerged shortly after Mugabe became the executive president. The liberation movement promised to solve this vital issue. Mugabe embarked on land redistribution since 2000. Under the programme, land was taken from the white holders that owned large farms and given to Africans.

The policy did not go down well with Britain, the former colonial master. Critics say Mugabe allocated land to his cronies leaving the vast majority of the people with nothing. We note that Zimbabwe is not the only country in the sub-region to carry out land reforms. Kenya did the same under its land consolidation policy but it didn't cause crisis. In the case of Zimbabwe, by not addressing the matter from the point of view of equity, many Zimbabweans including whites and blacks are complaining of exclusion in the land matter.

The failure of diplomacy to assuage Mugabe led Britain, America and the European Union (EU) to isolate Zimbabwe through a subsisting legislation that was passed in 2001. Under the legislation, the government of Zimbabwe is prohibited from accessing loan, credit or debt cancellation from the IMF and the other financial institutions. This exclusion has led to hyperinflation and unprecedented food shortage in Zimbabwe.

It is on this basis that Mugabe maintains that there is no problem in Zimbabwe except that created by its Western critics. Certainly, the West would not lift the embargo against Zimbabwe under Mugabe. What that means is that if Mugabe manipulates his way to be president for another five-year term that would amount to self-annihilation for Zimbabwe. Mugabe cannot continue to fight the forces that are greater than him with empty stomach.

On this basis, this election is crucial to save the country from further disastrous consequences. The West has deliberately allowed the old man to continue fighting until he is exhausted and leaves the stage drained. Mugabe is fighting a loosing battle. The SADC countries must take drastic steps to make Mugabe step down in the interest of his people. As it is, Zimbabwe cannot move forward so long as Mugabe remains in power. Let another regime redress the land issue. Zimbabwe can only regain its devastated nationhood with Mugabe outside the ring.